2009 Oscar Predictions

This years batch of Oscar films aren't the brilliant cache of challenging cinema it was just last year. There is no Daniel Plainview-esque performance, there is no unsettling masterpiece like No Country For Old Men, not even a bouncy feel-good dramedy like Juno, at least not up for any of the "big" awards. What this year's slew of nominees are, are a massive collective of subtlety. From Doubt to Benjamin Button to The Wrestler, these films are all about nuance and subtlety. Look at the Male Lead Nom's: Richard Jenkins? Mickey Rourke? These performances are both brilliant and painfully naturalistic all at once. Even Brad Pitt, smothered in CGI and epic story-telling still floats through that film almost whispering the entire time. The only real stand out anythings, be it a film, a director, an actor, are Slumdog Millionaire and Heath Ledgers Psycho/Brilliant/Legendary performance as The Joker. As far as anyone can tell, those two things are also the only guaranteed winners of the night. To be fair, Sean Penn in Milk is probably the most lively performance after Ledgers, but I'm not sure he can beat out Rourke's unbelievably refreshing showing in The Wrestler. So without further delay, here are the Predictions for each category. With a slight delay for each nominee's breakdown and analysis.


Best Picture


Frost/Nixon : When I saw the trailer for this film before Burn After Reading, I actually made a joke about how bad it was going to be. Turns out, its one of my personal favorites for this year. Ron Howard has finally stepped away (however briefly) from making big, awful movies and has crafted one of the more powerhouse films that have no big special effects or budgets of this year. The tension that can be felt throughout the entire film is so thick it could be used to style hair. On top of that, the documentary-style "in the present" breaks in the story move the film along with a very intelligent pace. I think this film will stand the test of time as not just another political thriller or anti-Nixon piece, but rather, a film that creates vast amounts of suspense and tension, even though we already know whats going to happen.


The Curious Case of Benjamin Button : Overall, this is a great film. The story telling is unique in its presentation, starting with the strange backwards moving clock tower intro going all the way into the Hurricane Katrina death bed sequences with Kate Blanchet. The love story is a wee bit off, as I'm not really sure that the chemistry between the two leads is there. Not like The Wrestler or Slumdog Millionaire. But what really kills this movie is Brad Pitt. Plus the fact it is a bit too much like Forest Gump. Sorry, no win.


The Reader : This film, I'm not sure what it's doing in this category. The Dark Knight should be in this slot. While the individual performances where bar none some of the best of the year, the movie itself is not. I'm not a fan. Sorry.

Milk : Runner up for Best Picture. Gus Van Sandt is one of the kings of hit or miss films (GERRY, anyone??) but he really nails it home here. It is obvious that Van Sandt is passionate about the project. The film beams with enthusiasm, amazing cinematography and direction as well as great performances from all of the actors. Even as a straight man, I felt the struggle of the gay community and their need for rights. I was in support of them. I was in support of Harvey Milk. Gay rights are just RIGHTS. That is something this film is trying to convey. I think it succeeded.

Slumdog Millionaire : Sometimes it is a bad thing to adhere to Hollywood conventions, like with Gran Torino which received no Oscar nominations. Other times, following a familiar structure works tremendously. Slumdog Millionaire is the latter. Even though it has an R rating due to language, this is truly a feel good movie for everyone to enjoy. A twist on the "True Love" story that Director Danny Boyle has crafted with true artistry. From the opening torture scenes to the closing Bollywood dance sequence, this movie has you gripped to the edge of your seat. You root for the good guy and you loathe the bad guys. You really want the boy to get the girl and you REALLY want the man who stands in their way to get whats coming to him. This film wins best picture, hands down.




Best Director


I'm going to save you the write up's for each nominee and just say Danny Boyle's direction in Slumdog Millionaire wins, for sure. No question. None of the other films compare. Fincher could have got more out of Pitt, The Reader was flat, Frost/Nixon was good, but not better than Millionaire, and Milk won't win either. Danny Boyle. Winner.



Best Actor in a Lead Role:

Richard Jenkins - The Visitor : I rented this movie because I was a huge fan of Tom McCarthy's The Station Agent. Then I heard Richard Jenkins was the lead. Being a fan of him from Six Feet Under, I decided it seemed like a great combination. What I can say about his performance is this: I am glad that he got the nomination, because if he hadn't he would have been robbed of the recognition this deserves. Out of all of the nom's in this category, this performance was the most believable on a human level. The character changes, but not that much. Just like a real person. We can change, but do we ever change in the way Hollywood makes it seem? Not really. But, he will not win.


Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon : Here we have a powerhouse Ham performance. Langella is an amazing actor who is reviving his role as Richard Nixon from the famous play and putting him on the big screen. While this character is chock full of great moments and quotable lines, it's just too stagey. It reminds me of Sean Penn in All the Kings Men. Too Blow-Hard. He will not win.


Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: I'm sorry but, no matter how much CGI or plaster you put on the man, no matter what director you put him with, BRAD PITT CAN NOT ACT. The poor bastard is getting this nomination because the film itself is so good, people are assuming it must have something to do with his performance. It doesn't. Thank David Fincher and move on. He will not win.


Sean Penn - Milk : This is my runner up for the win. Sean Penn gives a performance most actors strive for their entire careers. The man is the most consistently under-rated performer of his acting generation. From Dead Man Walking, to 21 Grams, to Milk, the man puts out classic material. In Milk, he pulls no punches. The exuberant openly gay politician gets start treatment in Penn's portrayal. He seems to be ten feet tall at times of the film. If anyone is capable of beating out our next nominee, its this one. Which leads me to...

Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler : I know this nominee is winning all of the small award shows, I know people have been all over this film since day one. But that doesn't mean they're wrong, or I'm on a bandwagon. I remember hearing a radio piece on NPR for this film on the day of its release, IMMEDIATELY I went online, got a copy (OOOPS!) and watched it. I was expecting something more in the vein of a "true" Darren Aronofsky film, but what I got was a small, paced, tour de force performance from a man who could not have been better for the role. The character and the actor line up so perfectly, its astounding. Both men, HUGE in the 80's, forgotten in the 90's, and now, trying to get their lives back together in the 00's. Both men, ravaged by the surgeries and drugs they made their bodies endure. That is why whenever Rand the Ram speaks on screen, I believe it. When Ram pulls that tear when he is pleading with his daughter, I see Mickey Rourke's failures as a person in that tear. It is a perfect role, at a perfect time. I'm not sure there's too much of a chance anyone beats this one, but if they do...someone really dropped the ball.



Actor In A Supporting Role


Josh Brolin - Milk : Brolin's performance as Dan White is in my personal opinion, more of the same from Brolin. He's an actor that for some reason, just can't seem to stop making the same acting moves in all of his recent films, minus his uber-cornball roll in Planet Terror. His John Wayne stature from No Country For Old Men is stripped away and he is given a much more uppity character in White, but it just seems that Brolin can't overcome his lack of range. I need to see something better from Brolin before I can say this was worth the nomination.


Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt : This is one of two potential winners under Heath Ledger. Hoffman takes his ability to be both quiet and menacingly present on screen in this role and makes the character of Father Brendan Flynn a man you might actually believe. Out of all of the four, yes FOUR actor/actresses that were nominated for their performances in this film, his was the best. He was the only one that actually created DOUBT, the name of the film. The viewer isn't sure if he's being manipulative, if he's lying, or if he's truly defending his innocence. At the end of the day, he has about a 35% chance of winning.


Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder : Every once in a while, the Academy pulls a WTF?! move. This year, its Downey Jr. I loved this movie. I am on the level of nerd fanboy of R rated comedies, but what the HELL is he doing on this list? This has to be the weakest category to choose from this year, because I just don't see it. Yeah ok, he's a white man who plays an actor who makes himself black. And he does an amazing job. But I can't wrap my head around it. Might as well put Michael Caine up for Dark Knight or Terrance Howard for Iron Man, because those would be equally as confusing. They're good rolls, but are they worthy of an Academy Award Nomination? I don't think so.


Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road : How this film didn't receive more nominations is beyond me, but this one, this is the real deal. If Heath Ledger hadn't of made this list, I'd say this is the sure fire winner and is still my favorite upset pick of the night. Shannon steals every single second of the film when he's on screen. His portrayal of a man who has reached his wit's end is absolutely electrifying. The man acts as a filter of truth throughout the film. Without him, the final confrontation between his character and Leonardo DiCaprio would have seemed too over the top, but his facial expressions, his delivery, even his body language, its all so perfect for the film. That's why I think he wins if the next nominee doesn't.

Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight : Every so often a character is given to an actor and the combination proves to be a thing of legend. Ben Kinglsey had Gandhi, Michael Madsen had Mr. Blonde, Javier Bordiem had Anton Sugar, and now Heath Ledger has the Joker. The best supporting actor should be the role that steals the most scenes with the least amount of effort, outside of the lead roles. Clearly, Ledger is the winner. He is terrifying, clever, funny, and down right fun when he's on screen. I would argue that he makes more of an impact on that film than Christian Bale and he's freakin BATMAN. The scenes they share are amazing, especially the Interrogation room scene where Ledger is tossed around like pizza dough. I'm not sure there's much room for failure here, Ledger has this category sealed.


Actress In a Leading Role


Anne Hatheway - Rachel Getting Married : While I think this is by far the single best "chick" movie I have ever watched, I'm not sure Hatheway will win. I know she's picked up a few smaller circuit awards for this performance so far, but the fact is that Angelina is crazier in Changeling and Kate Winslet is colder in the Reader. I hope she gets the upset win, but I just don't see it. Sorry.


Angelina Jolie - Changeling : To me, this performance is the only saving grace of another one of Clint Eastwood's cliche', conventional movies of late. The premise of the film is great, the film itself is not. However, put Angelina Jolie in the middle of things, and there are bound to be some sparks. The scenes in the mental hospital will be quoted in magazines and pop-culture references for years to come if she pulls out the win. If she doesn't this will turn out to be a forgotten performance in a overall forgettable film.


Mellisa Leo - Frozen River : Here's one from an early year release that I was pleased to see. One of the most nuanced nominations of the entire year, Leo shows the level of emotion one goes through when doing something illegal to survive. I honestly don't remember much about this movie, so I'm not going to act like I can make an assessment. Sorry.


Maryl Streep - Doubt : CAN WE STOP WITH HER ALREADY?? It's too much. She's the female equivalent of Clint Eastwood. She's always around come oscar season. I appreciate that, but this performance, not even in her top five. I felt that Doubt received too many acting nominations and this one is the worst. If Streep wins, I'll shave my head.


Kate Winslet - The Reader : Winslet has created a character in Hannah that took a long time for me to stop thinking about. Many critics have called her performance "emotionally distant". But that is what was required of her for this role. She played a Nazi who was in hiding, don't you think one would have to be pretty inconspicuous and emotionally distant from people to maintain a low profile? The scenes in the courtroom are great and the segment of the film where she shares multiple nude scenes with her male counterpart are unforgettable. Not because of the nudity, but the acting that goes on during the nudity. Some of the scenes where she is being read to, other actresses would have just sat there. Winslet made it seem the events of the books were actually happening to her. This should be the clear cut winner, even if she did make some stupid gaffe about Angelina Jolie at the SAG awards.



Actress in a Supporting Role


Amy Adams - Doubt : My second favorite pick to win. Out of the 3 female nominations for this film, hers is the only one I found to be warranted. The amount of emotional conflict that can be seen on her face is pretty amazing. Especially considering that this actress was just two years ago in Talledega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby. She is the moral glue that stands between Streep and Hoffman and tries so hard to keep things on an even keel, even when things are NOT that way.


Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona : Didn't see it. Sorry.


Viola Davis - Doubt : She was on screen for all but six minutes. Sorry. No chance.


Teraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button : From lesbian assassin in Smokin Aces to full blown character actress in Benji Button (we're tight like that. I call him Benji) This could be the winner if Marisa Tomei's breasts don't win.

Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler : I'm not sure when it started, I think it was Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, but it seems like Marisa Tomei really enjoys being nude on screen. I think her and Kate Winslet should get in a "Always naked on screen" fight with special referee Angelina Jolie. But all joking aside, this is the best supporting role for actresses this year. Her sympathy for Randy in the Wrestler is palpable. Their chemistry is so natural, so believable, I want her to win more than I think she should. So, she is my pick. Her and those breasts.


Here are the remainder of my Picks for the less popular categories

Art Direction: Benjamin Button

Cinematography : Slumdog Millionare or the Dark Knight

Costume Design : The Duchess (always go with the period piece)

Editing : The Dark Knight

Foreign Language Film : The Baader Meinhof Complex

Make-Up : Benjamin Button

Music Score - Slumdog Millionaire

Music Song - Slumdog Millionaire

Sound Editing - The Dark Knight

Sound Mixing - The Dark Knight

Visual Effects - The Dark Knight

Writing (adapted screenplay) - Slumdog Millionaire

Writing Original Screenplay - In Bruges